Potential Black Swan - Ukraine

So this just hit me and I don’t like it. The meltdown of US/UKR relations on Friday could reverberate into a black swan. How?

Trump demands a public apology from Zelensky. Zelensky doesn’t provide one. US withdraws all support to Ukraine. Europe decides to puts troops into Ukraine to guarantee its security and also to stand up to Trump. Europe and US relations breakdown. US and EU become adversaries. Even if no bullet is fired or missile is launched, economic ties and cooperation breaks down. Tariffs, loss of trade, loss of revenues, negative earnings growth.

All while the CAPE is at nosebleed levels priced to perfection.

Trump is miscalculating. While the US has leverage over one or several countries it will be severely hurt if the entire world unites against it. The fiasco on Friday was completely unnecessary and could spiral if cooler heads don’t prevail. And I don’t think there are any in or around the Oval at the moment.

What a screwed up time.